Sojapriser stiger til højeste niveau i to år

Frygt for tørken i USA får sojapriserne til at stige.

Priserne på sommerterminerne for soja steg torsdag til det højeste i knap to år, skriver Agrimoney.com. For sojakage steg juliterminerne med fem procent. Sojabønner havde næsten samme stigning - og endte på højeste prisniveau i 22 måneder, skriver mediet.

Det er frygt for tørke i det vigtige sojabælte i det amerikanske midtvesten, der får priserne til at stige. Det sker efter en våd periode under den argentinske høst, der siden marts har fået sojapriserne til at stige. Estimater lyder, at de samlede udbytter fra den argentinske høst falder fra 60 til 52 mio. ton. Senest er der rapporter om faldende proteinindhold fra argentisk soja, skriver Agrimoney.com.

Darrell Holaday, analytiker ved Country Futures, siger, at der ikke er tegn på ekstrem varme eller tørke de næste 15 dage.

"Men markedet er ligeglade, eftersom det tror, at tørken vil ramme sidst i juni og ind i juli," siger Darrell Holaday til Agrimoney.com.

Hvis tørken ikke sætter ind da, vil markedet forvente tørke senere ind i juli, mener analytikeren.

Også Jyske Markets påpeger, at vejret i Midtvesten er optimalt lige nu. Det er udelukkende frygten for tørke på længere sigt, der driver prisen op på, skriver de i deres analyse.

Jyske Markets er skeptisk over for, om soja kan holde prisniveauet.

"Markedet er efter to måneders konstant, jævn stigning steget 60 % på sommerterminen, nu voldsomt overkøbt og aldeles modent til en korrektion," skriver Jyske Markets.

De noterer sig, at spændet mellem de korte kontrakter og terminerne i 2017 er vokset markant.

"Fastholdes de høje priser henover sommeren, forventer vi at stigningerne i højere grad vil aflejres på de senere, så få dækket det lange forbrug," råder Jyske Markets.

 

 

Meal leads beans

Once again, it was soymeal which saw the biggest gains on the day, indicative of just how much the Argentine disruptions have rattled the market.

July soymeal futures rose 5.0%, to finish at $418.3 a short tonne.

Soybean futures followed suit, with the July contract ending at 11.44 ¼ a tonne, up 4%$ on the day at a 22-month high.

Profit taking

US weekly ethanol data showed production down by 14,000 barrels, to 960,000 barrels per day.

Stocks of the corn-based biofuel remained unchanged from last week, at 20.8m barrels, the lowest level of the calendar year.

July ethanol futures hit a year-and-a-half high of $1.677 a gallon, before falling back $1.660 a gallon, up 0.6% on the day.

Corn markets got spill-over strength from soybeans throughout the day, as the July contract hit a one-year high of $4.19 ½ a bushel.

But the market fell back on a sudden profit taking spree. July corn futures finished unchanged, at $4.15 ¼ a bushel.

Wheat gets dragged up

Even after the previous session's rally, wheat futures are at a narrow premium to soybeans by historical standards, which means that prices were ready to be dragged up by the rallying oilseeds.

"At some point the wheat short may be forced into covering if row crops continue to find support," CHS Hedging said.

And fundamentals are still adding an element of upside risk, as traders keep an eye on the potential for unwanted rains in the US Plain.

July Chicago wheat finished up 2.0%, at $4.85 ½ a bushel.

Brazilian rains disrupt exports

Sugar markets roared to a two-year high, as rains continue to disrupt cane cutting and sugar exports in Brazil, by far the world's top grower.

The front end of the futures curve even shifted briefly into backwardation, with the July contract rising above the October for the first time since November.

This move is usually treated as a sign of squeezed short term supply, which is striking at a time when the Brazilian harvest should be in full swing.

Sanguine on May numbers

On Wednesday markets absorbed news that the Brazilian cane crush in the first half of March was even larger than expected, at near record levels, but markets are now much more interested in the current weather outlook.

"We, along with many others, expect much weaker production in the second half of May because much of the region has been so wet," said Tobin Gorey, at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"We expect wet conditions to hamper production in early June as a result too."

Nick Penney, at Sucden Financial, said the market was "taking a rather sanguine view , preferring to act on what may be released in future reports rather than on this one".

July raw sugar settled up 3.9%, at 18.08 cents a pound, after hitting a two-year high of to 18.18 cents.

August white sugar settled up 2.7%, at $494.80 a tonne.

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